How do Rebel Groups React to Disasters?

The frequency and intensity of disasters like droughts, earthquakes, floods, and storms is on the rise due to climate change, urbanisation, and persistent poverty. At the same time, the number of armed conflicts worldwide is on a historical heigh. Consequentially, disaster and armed conflict zones will intersect more frequently in the future, particularly because conflict-ridden countries are more vulnerable to disasters. This poses significant challenges to disaster risk reduction (DRR) in conflict zones and to conflict management in the aftermath of disasters.

As of yet, only limited evidence is available on how non-state violent actors react to disasters in areas where they are active. This knowledge gap is crucial. Armed violence often poses as major challenge for disaster responders as well as for attempts to build back better. In many remote and insecure areas, states also cannot or do not want to provide significant disaster risk reduction. In these places, rebel groups are often strongly involved in disaster governance.

The project analyses how rebel groups react to disasters in areas where they operate. It studies military reactions as well as broader forms of rebel governance like aid provision or disaster prevention. Together with local partners, the project studies leftist insurgents in three different countries: the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), the Communist Party of Nepal Maoist (CPN-M), and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

Tobias Ide, Murdoch University

Tobias Ide, Murdoch University (Project Lead)

Members

Debendra Adhikari, Nepal Centre for Contemporary Research
Isabella Romero Ángel, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana
Pablo Ramos Baron, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana
Dennis F. Quilala, University of the Philippines Diliman
Dahlia Simangan, Hiroshima University
Bishnu Raj Upreti, Nepal Centre for Contemporary Research

The project seeks to understand how rebel groups prepare for and react to disasters in military and governance terms. Based on this knowledge, the project will develop recommendations on disaster risk reduction in conflict zones and fragile countries as well as on post-disaster diplomacy.

The project is highly relevant for the peace-sustainability nexus. It explores options for the promotion of peace in the face of disasters, which often result from unsustainable development in the form of climate change, deforestation, poverty, or unplanned urbanisation. At the same time, it studies how the absence of peace affects disaster risk reduction, thereby contributing to SDG 11.5: Reduce the adverse effects of natural disasters.

Relevance to the peace-sustainability nexus

The project is highly relevant for the peace-sustainability nexus. It explores options for the promotion of peace in the face of disasters, which often result from unsustainable development in the form of climate change, deforestation, poverty, or unplanned urbanisation. At the same time, it studies how the absence of peace affects disaster risk reduction, thereby contributing to SDG 11.5: Reduce the adverse effects of natural disasters.