May 13, 2025 (Tuesday, 18:00 -19:00 JST)
About the Webinar
The relationship between climate change and civil conflict is complex and multifaceted. Empirical research has made considerable progress in identifying the links, with two main transmission mechanisms recognized: increased competition for natural resources and decreased agricultural productivity. Various empirical approaches have been employed to identify these pathways, and the increasing availability of high-resolution georeferenced datasets has prompted more detailed and rigorous analyses. Nevertheless, much of the focus remains on direct, quantifiable effects such as declining agricultural yields, resource scarcity, livelihood threats, and increased migration. Other critical pathways, such as the impact of price changes and market forces, remain surprisingly underexplored.
However, climate change not only threatens livelihoods through its impact on agriculture and water resources, but also undermines development gains by exacerbating poverty, inequality, and institutional fragility. These socio-economic stressors can heighten the risk of conflict, particularly in fragile countries where adaptive capacity is low. Therefore, the role of vulnerability to climate change becomes critical, as a characterizing element capable of amplifying – or, on the contrary, making it easier to overcome – the direct impacts of climate change. After having outlined the most recent literature on the relationship between climate change and conflict, the seminar will focus on presenting a recent contribution on the role of vulnerability. We will explore the influence of climate change vulnerability on the likelihood and severity of communal violence, with a particular emphasis on delineating large-scale regional patterns. Specifically, the analysis centres on Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia – both regions predominantly characterised by rain-fed agriculture and climate-sensitive economic activities.
About the Speaker
Sara Balestri , Ph.D.
Sara Balestri holds a Laurea in International Relations for Development from Bologna University and UCSC Milan, an MSc in Development Economics from the University of Sussex (UK), and a PhD in Institutions and Politics (Development Economics) from UCSC Milan, where she conducted empirical research on the role of natural resources in the intensity of civil conflicts in low-income countries. She is an Assistant Professor in Economic Policy at the Department of Economics, University of Perugia. She has also served as a Visiting Professor at the Centre for European Integration Studies (ZEI) at the University of Bonn (Germany) and UPAEP (Mexico).
Through various collaborations with NGOs, the Italian Cooperation Agency, and the United Nations Development Program, she has conducted fieldwork in Bangladesh, Bolivia, India, Ivory Coast, Jordan, Lebanon, Uganda, and the West Bank.
Her research interests include development economics, environmental economics, political economy, and policy impact evaluation. In particular, she has studied how natural resources interact with social stability and institutional quality, and how tenure insecurity and climate shocks affect conflict dynamics at the macro level and individual and household welfare at the micro level..
About the NERPS Webinar Series
The Network for Education and Research on Peace and Sustainability (NERPS) at Hiroshima University in Japan is hosting a series of webinars on the relationship between peace and sustainability in the context of environmental, socio-political, economic, and technological transformations. This series is situated within the urgent need to deal with the implications of global change, including the COVID-19 pandemic, for peace and sustainability. The webinar sessions serve as a platform for rethinking and updating the current discourse on peace and sustainability amidst these global challenges and transformations. Leading experts will discuss the role of resources, digital technologies, migration, governance, and education in peacebuilding, conflict mitigation, humanitarian aid, and capacity-building, among other components that contribute to the achievement of the Sustainability Development Goals, particularly that of Goal 16 on Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions. Check out our previous webinars here.